January 25 Revolution, Egypt

For the past month, the world — and particularly Europe and the US — has been watching events unfold from Tahrir Square in Cairo. The January 25 Revolution, a fortnight of civil unrest culminating in sustained protest in the Egyptian capital, has led to the momentous resignation of President Mubarak, one of the longest-serving leaders on the planet.

This is a region flanked only by the relative stability of Morocco, Saudi Arabia and India. From Pakistan to Algeria, we are seeing power struggles, rapid changes in governance and tribal tensions. This is not just a dangerous moment for the region, but for the rest of the world. What happens here will impact security, economics and development — yet the West appears to be in petty political firefighting mode, failing to show the backbone its declared foreign policy on the situation demands.

Will attention now shift anxiously to the surrounding region? In Jordan, King Abdullah sacked Prime Minister Samir Rifai and appointed a former army general and ambassador to Israel. In Yemen, tens of thousands are demonstrating in the capital Sanaa, calling for President Ali Abdullah Saleh — in power for thirty years — to stand down. In Iran, demonstrations have recently been met by the state with violent suppression. Calls for economic and political reform are rippling through the region.

Sudan has gained some form of governance for its southern region through the declaration of South Sudanese sovereignty, though Brent crude oil prices have surged regardless, driven by fears over the security of the Suez Canal and the oil passing through it.

Israel is wondering what its right-leaning coalition has landed it in. Beyond that sits Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq and Pakistan. Does Egypt set an example to neighbouring African and Middle Eastern countries that the state is ultimately accountable to its people — or will it be seen as a mark of weakness that opens the region to further conflict? It is far too early to predict, but the current power vacuum creates a dangerous potential for actors such as the Muslim Brotherhood to step into. A growth of Islamist influence in the region, combined with displaced populations, is not what the Western world wants to see.