Deciding to delay: a decision on replacing Trident pushed past 2015?

According to media reports this past week, the Coalition may announce a delay to the decision to replace Trident until after the next election, currently scheduled for May 2015.

There are significant dangers in delaying the decision known in Whitehall, Westminster and industry as 'Main Gate'. The Astute Class submarines will — if all goes to plan — have been completed before that point, meaning the industrial drum-beat may have stopped. With no other submarines under construction, the labour market will be jeopardised, putting at risk the effective start-up and build process for any replacement deterrent.

On first glance, this move appears to be a poor attempt to justify cost savings. It is likely that such a delay will actually incur additional costs — extending the lifespan of existing Trident boats, reigniting the workforce in 2015 or 2016, and paying off contracts already in place with BAE Submarine Solutions.

The cynical view is that this is a Conservative tactic to delay the decision until after the next election, on the possibility that the Liberal Democrats may perform less well. That would make the decision considerably easier for a majority Conservative government on a subject that currently cuts across the differing ideologies of both coalition parties.

How will a delay be justified in the SDSR? Will it be argued on cost grounds or military strategy? 19 October will be a significant day for many BAE and MOD employees.