A tough timetable for tough decisions

The timetable to build the successor nuclear deterrent is very much reliant on the current submarine industry — one dominated entirely by BAE Submarine Solutions, with sites in Barrow-in-Furness, Devonport, Filton, Faslane, Farnborough, Ash Vale, Waterlooville, Derby and Weymouth.

There is a reliance on the continued activity of that industry when construction begins. A lack of demand for submarines will lead to an erosion and downturn in the submarine workforce. Prior to Astute Class construction, such a downturn caused BAE Systems to cancel its submarine building apprenticeship scheme and lay off a large proportion of its workforce. The previous Labour government stated to Parliament that the submarines need to be ordered by 2015 to ensure that the industrial drum-beat is maintained without threatening the loss of an irreplaceable skilled workforce.

Are today's reports of alleged delays hearsay, or — if they prove to be more — is this a rushed decision simply to push away hard choices until after 2015, when a more Conservative-proportioned Parliament may find it easier to agree to a faster and naturally more expensive replacement?

Aside from this, a delay ultimately points to one of several outcomes: replacing Trident in due course while maintaining a continuous deterrent; replacing Trident but breaking continuous deterrence and then restarting it; replacing Trident with a tactical nuclear force rather than a continuous deterrent; or pursuing full nuclear disarmament.